818
ACUS11 KWNS 121650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121649
NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-121815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN UT...SWRN CO...NERN AZ...NWRN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121649Z - 121815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING N-NEWD ACROSS
SERN UT...SWRN CO...NERN AZ AND NWRN NM WILL POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...AT 1630Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING N-NEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE
ROTATING NWD ACROSS AZ. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S COMBINED WITH COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
YIELD MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AS AN 80 KT
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS NEWD. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN
ADDITION...COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT. ATTM...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE COVERAGE OF SVR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/12/2012
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...
LAT...LON 38011035 38620936 38390805 36900738 35550779 34820889
35200999 36141042 38011035
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