950
ACUS11 KWNS 170402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170402
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-170530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IL/SOUTHWEST INDIANA/FAR NORTHWEST KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 170402Z - 170530Z
SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST IL INTO SOUTHWEST
INDIANA/FAR NORTHWEST KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS
UNCLEAR...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH.
LONE SEVERE TSTM/SUPERCELL HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL...NEAR/EAST OF SALEM AS OF 0345Z...WITH A 44
KT GUST RECENTLY MEASURED AT SALEM. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S F...THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE THRIVING ALONG A
WNW-ESE ORIENTED MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK WARM FRONT...WITH SUPPORT ON
THE LARGE SCALE VIA A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS SAMPLE
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR/VEERING WITH HEIGHT FOR SUPERCELL
SUSTENANCE/SEVERE STORM ORGANIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEST
BUOYANCY PUTS THE EXTENT/LONGEVITY OF THE SEVERE RISK INTO QUESTION.
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR...BUT CONTINUED INCREASING DEEP
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND/OR UPSCALE GROWTH IN A BROADER CLUSTER/MCS
COULD PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.
..GUYER.. 07/17/2009
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38998889 38998780 38318669 37728725 38238904 38998889
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